Iraq stands on the brink of a transformative moment as it prepares for its first national census in nearly 30 years. Scheduled for November 20 and 21, 2024, this historic event will be conducted under a nationwide two-day curfew. This census is more than a mere count of inhabitants; it represents a crucial step in Iraq’s journey toward stability and effective governance after decades of conflict and upheaval.
Historical Context of Iraq’s Censuses:
The history of censuses in Iraq provides a window into the country’s complex socio-political landscape. The last comprehensive national census took place in 1997, covering 15 provinces but excluding the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region. The exclusion of Kurdistan reflected ongoing regional tensions and administrative challenges that have persisted into the present day.
Postponements and Challenges:
Iraq’s attempts to conduct a census in the years following 1997 have been marred by repeated delays. The 2010 census was postponed due to escalating tensions over disputed territories, particularly in areas such as Kirkuk, which has a diverse demographic profile involving Kurds, Arabs, and Turkmen. The disputes over these areas have been a source of ongoing political instability.
In 2007, the planned census was derailed by intense sectarian violence that swept across the country. The security situation was so dire that it became impossible to conduct a reliable count, underscoring the impact of conflict on administrative functions.
Current Population Estimates:
As of the latest estimates, Iraq’s population is approximately 43 million. While this figure provides a general sense of the country’s demographic size, it lacks the granularity needed for precise policy-making. The forthcoming census aims to fill this gap by providing a detailed breakdown of the population, including age, gender, and regional distribution.
The November 2024 Census:
The decision to proceed with the census in November 2024 is a landmark moment for Iraq. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani announced the imposition of a two-day curfew, which will be implemented across all provinces. This measure is designed to ensure a thorough and uninterrupted population count.
The curfew, spanning from November 20 to 21, will restrict movement to facilitate the census process. By minimizing disruptions and ensuring that census workers can operate without interference, the government aims to achieve an accurate and comprehensive count. This approach reflects a significant logistical and administrative effort, demonstrating Iraq’s commitment to rebuilding its demographic infrastructure.
Logistical and Political Preparation:
The preparation for this census involves extensive logistical and political coordination. Various Iraqi ministries are providing crucial support, including offering classrooms and youth centers for the training of statistical staff. This training is essential for ensuring that census workers are well-prepared to collect and record data accurately.
Coordination with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is a key aspect of this preparation. The KRG’s involvement is critical for conducting the census in the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region, which has distinct administrative and political dynamics compared to the rest of Iraq.
International Support and Coordination:
The involvement of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) in the census process is a significant development. The UNFPA’s support includes technical assistance, data collection methodologies, and alignment with international best practices. This partnership is designed to ensure that the census meets global standards and provides reliable data.
The UNFPA has highlighted the importance of this census for Iraq’s development. Accurate demographic data is essential for effective policymaking, resource allocation, and social services planning. The agency’s support underscores the international community’s commitment to Iraq’s stability and development.
Impact on Policy and Development:
The outcomes of the 2024 census will have profound implications for Iraq’s policy-making and development strategies. Detailed demographic data will enable the government to plan infrastructure projects more effectively, allocate resources based on regional needs, and implement targeted social services.
For example, understanding the population distribution can help address regional disparities in healthcare, education, and economic development. It will also provide a clearer picture of population growth trends, which is crucial for long-term planning and investment.
Challenges and Risks:
Despite the extensive preparations, several challenges and risks remain. Security concerns, particularly in conflict-prone areas, pose a significant risk to the successful execution of the census. The two-day curfew is intended to mitigate these risks by reducing movement and potential disruptions.
Ensuring the safety of census workers is a priority, given the historical context of violence and instability in Iraq. The government’s ability to maintain order during the curfew and protect those involved in the census process will be critical for achieving accurate results.
Public and Political Reactions:
The announcement of the curfew and the census has elicited a range of reactions from the public and political figures. Many view the census as a positive step toward strengthening Iraq’s demographic and administrative framework. It is seen as an opportunity for the country to move past years of conflict and towards a more stable and well-planned future.
However, there are concerns about the potential impact of the curfew on daily life. Critics argue that the restrictions could disrupt economic activities and daily routines, particularly in areas where people rely on mobility for their livelihoods. Balancing the need for an accurate census with the impact on daily life will be a key challenge.
Recent Developments and Comparisons:
Recent developments in Iraq, including efforts to address political and security challenges, have created a more stable environment for conducting the census. Compared to previous years, the current political climate is relatively stable, which has facilitated the planning and execution of this important task.
Comparing Iraq’s approach to censuses with that of neighboring countries offers valuable insights. For instance, Turkey and Iran have also faced challenges in conducting censuses but have implemented various strategies to ensure accuracy and inclusivity. Turkey, for example, has used advanced technology and data integration methods to improve the accuracy of its censuses. Iran has focused on extensive public awareness campaigns to ensure broad participation. These comparisons highlight the diverse approaches to census-taking and provide potential lessons for Iraq.
Technological and Methodological Innovations:
In addition to logistical preparations, the 2024 Iraqi census will incorporate technological and methodological innovations. Modern census practices often involve the use of digital tools and data collection technologies to enhance accuracy and efficiency. This may include the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for mapping and data integration, as well as mobile applications for data collection.
Implementing these innovations can help streamline the census process and reduce errors. However, it also requires significant investment in technology and training. Ensuring that census workers are proficient in using these tools will be crucial for the success of the operation.
Future Implications:
The results of the 2024 census will have long-lasting implications for Iraq. The detailed demographic data will inform future policy decisions, including those related to economic development, healthcare, education, and social services. It will also provide a foundation for future censuses and demographic surveys, contributing to a more robust and reliable data collection framework.
Moreover, the successful execution of the census could enhance Iraq’s international standing and attract further support from the global community. Accurate demographic data is a key factor in attracting investment and aid, as it demonstrates the country’s commitment to transparent and effective governance.
Conclusion:
The upcoming census in Iraq is a landmark event that reflects both the challenges and opportunities facing the country. By implementing a two-day curfew and partnering with international organizations, Iraq is taking significant steps toward achieving a comprehensive and accurate population count. This census represents a crucial step in the country’s journey toward stability and effective governance, providing the foundation for informed decision-making and strategic planning in the years to come.
As Iraq moves forward with this historic census, the international community will be watching closely. The success of this endeavor will not only impact Iraq’s demographic data but also its broader development trajectory. By addressing the challenges and leveraging opportunities, Iraq aims to set a new course for its future, grounded in accurate data and informed policy-making.
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
