Brief Overview:
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has officially announced the dates for the much-anticipated assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir, set to be held in three distinct phases on September 18, September 25, and October 1, 2024. This election marks a crucial moment in the region’s history, being the first since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status. The elections are expected to be a pivotal event, not just for the political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir, but also for the broader narrative of democracy in the region. With security tightened and the political atmosphere charged, the ECI is preparing for a challenging electoral process. The assembly elections will take place across 90 constituencies, involving over 87 lakh voters, including 3.71 lakh first-time voters. The counting of votes is scheduled for October 4, 2024, coinciding with the single-phase assembly elections in Haryana, where 2.01 crore voters will determine the future political direction. The upcoming elections are being closely watched as they follow a decade-long gap since the last assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014, and they come in the wake of significant political developments and the Supreme Court’s directive to hold elections before September 2024. This election season is set to be a defining moment for Jammu and Kashmir, as the region seeks to navigate its post-Article 370 political reality, with major parties like the BJP, National Conference, and Congress vying for power amidst heightened security and a politically charged environment.
The First Assembly Elections in Jammu and Kashmir Post-Article 370
The announcement of the assembly election dates by the Election Commission of India (ECI) has brought the political spotlight back on Jammu and Kashmir, a region that has seen profound changes in the last decade. The upcoming elections, slated to be conducted in three phases on September 18, 25, and October 1, 2024, are not just another electoral exercise—they represent a critical juncture in the region’s political history. This will be the first assembly election since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, an event that fundamentally altered Jammu and Kashmir’s relationship with the Indian Union, removing its special autonomy and bifurcating the state into two Union Territories: Jammu & Kashmir, and Ladakh.
A Decade-Long Wait for Elections
The last assembly election in Jammu and Kashmir was held in 2014, when the political dynamics were markedly different. The region was still governed under the special provisions of Article 370, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed a coalition government after a fractured mandate. However, the situation today is starkly different. The abrogation of Article 370 has not only reshaped the legal and constitutional framework of the region but has also had deep political and social ramifications.
The 2024 elections come after a decade-long hiatus and amidst a radically transformed political environment. With the dissolution of the state’s special status, the legislative landscape has changed, and so have the expectations and apprehensions of the electorate. The political discourse is now heavily influenced by the region’s new constitutional status, security concerns, and the central government’s policies, which aim to integrate Jammu and Kashmir more closely with the rest of India.
Security and Electoral Integrity
One of the most significant challenges in these elections is ensuring security and maintaining the integrity of the electoral process. The ECI has already indicated that security has been tightened across Jammu and Kashmir in anticipation of the elections. Given the region’s history of violence and the presence of various insurgent groups, the election will be conducted under stringent security measures to prevent any disruptions or threats to the voters and the electoral staff.
The region’s security scenario remains delicate, and the administration is taking no chances. The ECI’s decision to conduct the elections in three phases is a reflection of the security assessments and the need to deploy resources efficiently across the region’s diverse and challenging terrain. The phased approach allows security forces to focus on specific areas during each phase, ensuring that the elections can be conducted in a peaceful and orderly manner.
Political Dynamics and Major Contenders
The upcoming elections are set to be a fiercely contested affair, with major political parties like the BJP, National Conference (NC), Congress, and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) preparing to make their case to the electorate. The BJP, which has been a strong advocate of the abrogation of Article 370, is expected to campaign on a platform of integration and development, emphasizing its role in bringing Jammu and Kashmir closer to the national mainstream. The party’s performance in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where it won two of the five parliamentary seats in Jammu and Kashmir, has given it a foothold in the region, particularly in the Jammu division.
On the other hand, the National Conference, led by Omar Abdullah, is likely to focus on the restoration of statehood and the protection of the region’s identity. The NC has historically been one of the most influential political forces in Jammu and Kashmir, and it will be interesting to see how it navigates the post-Article 370 political landscape. The party’s stance on the abrogation and its demand for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood will be central themes of its campaign.
The Congress party, which has a significant presence in Jammu and Kashmir, will also be a key player in these elections. The party has been critical of the BJP’s policies in the region and is expected to advocate for greater autonomy and development, along with a focus on secularism and social justice. The PDP, which has seen a decline in its political fortunes after the fallout of its alliance with the BJP, will also be vying to regain its influence, particularly in the Kashmir Valley.
Electoral Demographics and Voter Sentiment
The electorate in Jammu and Kashmir is diverse, with significant variations in political preferences across different regions. The Jammu division, which is predominantly Hindu, has been a stronghold for the BJP, while the Kashmir Valley, with its Muslim-majority population, has traditionally supported parties like the NC and PDP. The Ladakh region, now a separate Union Territory, will not participate in these elections, further altering the electoral map.
According to the ECI, there are 87.09 lakh voters in Jammu and Kashmir, spread across 90 assembly constituencies. This includes 3.71 lakh first-time voters, who will be casting their ballots in a region that has undergone significant changes since they last participated in an assembly election. The voter sentiment in these elections will be shaped by a range of factors, including the region’s security situation, the impact of central government policies, and the promises made by political parties during their campaigns.
The counting of votes will take place on October 4, 2024, coinciding with the counting for the Haryana assembly elections. The results of these elections will not only determine the political leadership of Jammu and Kashmir for the next five years but will also be a referendum on the changes brought about since the abrogation of Article 370.
Haryana’s Single-Phase Election
While much of the attention is focused on Jammu and Kashmir, the assembly elections in Haryana are also significant. Haryana will hold its elections in a single phase on October 1, 2024, with the counting of votes scheduled for October 4. The state has a total of 2.01 crore voters, who will be deciding the fate of candidates across 90 assembly constituencies.
The political landscape in Haryana is dominated by the BJP and Congress, with the BJP currently holding the majority in the state assembly. In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 40 seats, while the Congress secured 31. The upcoming elections are expected to be a close contest, with both parties vying to capture the state government.
Maharashtra and Other Upcoming Elections
The ECI has indicated that the assembly elections in Maharashtra, which were held simultaneously with Haryana in 2019, will be announced at a later date. This decision is reportedly due to the need to focus security resources on Jammu and Kashmir, given the region’s unique challenges. In addition to Maharashtra, elections are also due in Jharkhand and Delhi, making the next few months a busy and politically charged period for the ECI and the electorate across these regions.
The Impact of the Supreme Court’s Directive
The Supreme Court of India has played a crucial role in shaping the timing of the Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections. In a recent ruling, the Court directed that elections should be held before September 2024, in line with the constitutional mandate to ensure that the region has an elected government. This directive has added a sense of urgency to the electoral process, as the ECI works to meet the Court’s deadline while ensuring that the elections are conducted in a fair and secure manner.
The Supreme Court’s involvement underscores the importance of these elections in restoring democratic governance in Jammu and Kashmir. The region has been under central rule since the abrogation of Article 370, and the elections represent a crucial step towards re-establishing an elected government that can address the unique challenges and aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment for Jammu and Kashmir
The upcoming assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir are not just a routine political exercise—they are a defining moment in the region’s history. As the first elections since the abrogation of Article 370, they will set the stage for the future political trajectory of the region. The elections will be a test of the central government’s policies, the resilience of the democratic process, and the ability of political parties to navigate the new political landscape.
For the people of Jammu and Kashmir, these elections offer an opportunity to voice their opinions on the changes that have taken place over the past decade. The outcome will have
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
