India’s population is projected to peak in the early 2060s at approximately 1.7 billion before experiencing a 12% decline, according to the World Population Prospects 2024 report released by the United Nations on July 11. Despite this decline, India will remain the world’s most populous country throughout the century.
Current and Future Projections
The report states that India, which surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation last year, will continue to hold this position through 2100. India’s population, currently at 1.45 billion in 2024, is expected to increase to 1.69 billion by 2054. However, a gradual decline will follow, bringing the population down to 1.5 billion by the end of the century.
Global Population Trends
Globally, the population is expected to continue growing over the next few decades, reaching a peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. Post-peak, a gradual decline will bring the global population to approximately 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
Implications for China
China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion, is projected to decline significantly, reaching 1.21 billion by 2054 and 633 million by 2100. The report indicates that China will experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, followed by Japan and Russia. China’s population decline is attributed to sustained low fertility rates, currently around one birth per woman, far below the replacement level of 2.1 births.
Expert Insights
Clare Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, emphasized that India’s position as the world’s most populous country is projected to remain stable throughout the century, despite the anticipated decline. John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at UN DESA, highlighted the significant impact of low fertility rates on China’s population trajectory, noting that such levels result in long-term declines.
Conclusion
The United Nations report underscores the dynamic nature of global population trends and the significant demographic shifts expected in the coming decades. While India’s population is set to peak and then decline, the country will maintain its status as the world’s largest by population well into the future.
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
