In the wake of recent severe weather events, India Meteorological Department (IMD) Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has addressed criticism surrounding the accuracy and timeliness of rainfall warnings issued for Kerala, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh. This response comes amid significant flooding and landslides that have caused substantial damage and loss of life.
Timeliness and Accuracy of IMD Rainfall Warnings
On August 1, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clarified that the IMD had indeed issued timely warnings regarding significant rainfall activity along the west coast of India. According to Mohapatra, the department released an extended range forecast on July 18 and July 25, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The forecast covered the period from July 25 to August 1, and the IMD issued a yellow warning on July 25, escalating to an orange warning by July 29 and a red warning on the morning of July 30. The red warning signaled the possibility of very heavy rainfall, up to 20 cm, which was expected to impact the region severely.
Mr. Mohapatra emphasized that an orange warning is a preparatory alert, intended to prompt necessary precautions even before a red warning is issued. This protocol is designed to ensure that communities are adequately prepared for impending severe weather conditions. The IMD’s approach aims to provide early alerts to mitigate the impact of such natural calamities.
Responses to Criticisms and Recent Events
The IMD’s warnings have come under scrutiny following devastating landslides in Wayanad, Kerala, which resulted in over 150 fatalities. Union Home Minister Amit Shah criticized the Kerala government for allegedly not responding adequately to the IMD’s warnings. In response, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan contended that the IMD had only issued an orange alert for Wayanad, and the actual rainfall exceeded the predicted levels, with over 572 mm of rain recorded. Vijayan suggested that the magnitude of the rainfall was beyond what had been forecasted.
Mr. Mohapatra responded to these concerns by noting the limitations inherent in weather forecasting. He acknowledged that while the IMD strives for accuracy, extreme weather events can sometimes exceed predictions. The challenges of forecasting such intense rainfall are compounded by the variability in local conditions and the limitations of meteorological models.
Impact on Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand
In addition to Kerala, the IMD’s warnings were also relevant for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, which have experienced severe weather conditions. Heavy rains in these regions led to cloudbursts that resulted in fatalities and significant infrastructure damage. In Himachal Pradesh alone, three individuals were reported dead and approximately 40 others went missing due to cloudbursts, which also caused damage to houses, roads, and hydropower projects.
Mr. Mohapatra explained that cloudbursts are challenging to predict due to their sudden and intense nature. He likened them to extreme rainfall events experienced in Delhi, where heavy rainfall occurred over a short period. Such events are categorized as “extremely intense spells” and are indicative of the shifting monsoon trough, which has recently moved north of its normal position, contributing to the unusual rainfall patterns observed.
Forecasting Challenges and Future Measures
The IMD’s forecasting efforts aim to account for various meteorological factors to issue accurate warnings. However, the unpredictability of extreme weather phenomena presents ongoing challenges. The department continues to refine its forecasting models and improve its alert systems to better manage and respond to severe weather events.
Mr. Mohapatra’s defense of the IMD’s practices highlights the complexities of weather forecasting and the limitations of current models. As climate change continues to influence weather patterns, the IMD is tasked with adapting its methodologies to provide more precise and timely warnings.
Summary
IMD Chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra has defended the meteorological department’s rainfall warnings for Kerala, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh amidst criticism following severe weather events. The IMD’s multi-tiered warning system aimed to prepare affected regions for significant rainfall, but extreme weather conditions sometimes exceed predictions. The department continues to face challenges in forecasting and is working on enhancing its alert systems to better address future weather-related crises.
Key Learning Points:
| Key Point | Details |
|---|---|
| Timeliness of Warnings | IMD issued warnings from July 18 to July 30, with alerts escalating from yellow to red |
| Criticisms Addressed | Kerala’s response and actual rainfall were scrutinized, with claims of forecasts being exceeded |
| Challenges in Forecasting | Extreme weather events like cloudbursts and intense rainfall pose significant forecasting challenges |
| Regional Impacts | Severe weather led to fatalities and infrastructure damage in Kerala, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand |
| IMD’s Response | The IMD acknowledges limitations and works to improve forecasting models and alert systems |
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
