In a move that could reshape regional dynamics, India faces a critical decision regarding its participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Heads of Government (HoG) summit, set to be hosted by Pakistan. This decision comes amid a busy diplomatic calendar for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is scheduled to travel extensively over the coming months. The complexities surrounding India’s potential participation in the SCO summit reflect broader geopolitical tensions and diplomatic strategies in South Asia.
Invitation Received: A Diplomatic Crossroad
On August 30, 2024, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) confirmed that Pakistan had extended an invitation for India to attend the SCO Heads of Government summit in Islamabad on October 15-16, 2024. This summit is a significant event in the regional diplomatic calendar, with implications for bilateral relations and broader geopolitical strategies. Despite the formal invitation, the MEA has not yet reached a decision on India’s participation, nor has it specified the level at which India might be represented.
The MEA’s spokesperson, Randhir Jaiswal, commented, “We have received the invitation for attending the Heads of Government Summit of the SCO from Pakistan. As and when we have an update on our participation, we will share it with you.” This statement underscores the cautious approach India is taking in response to the invitation.
Historically, India and Pakistan have navigated their diplomatic relations with a degree of caution, particularly when it comes to high-level meetings. Both nations had previously agreed that their respective heads of state, rather than their heads of government, would represent them at the SCO summit. Consequently, Prime Minister Modi has typically delegated such responsibilities to the Vice President or the External Affairs Minister.
The Strategic Importance of the SCO Summit
The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, founded in 2001, is a regional political, economic, and security alliance that includes China, Russia, and several Central Asian countries. The SCO’s Heads of Government summit serves as a platform for member states to discuss and coordinate on regional issues, economic cooperation, and security matters.
For India, participation in the SCO summit presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it provides a forum for engaging with key regional players and addressing pressing issues such as regional security and economic cooperation. On the other hand, attending the summit in Pakistan could be seen as a significant diplomatic gesture, potentially altering the dynamics of India-Pakistan relations.
The decision to attend the summit also holds implications for India’s broader foreign policy. Participation could be interpreted as a willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation with Pakistan, potentially easing tensions between the two nations. Conversely, opting out might be viewed as maintaining a cautious stance in light of ongoing bilateral issues.
Prime Minister Modi’s Upcoming Diplomatic Engagements
Prime Minister Modi’s schedule over the next two months is densely packed, reflecting India’s strategic diplomatic priorities and engagements. In early September, Modi is slated to visit Brunei Darussalam on September 3-4 and Singapore on September 4-5. This visit to Southeast Asia replaces an earlier planned trip to Bangkok for the BIMSTEC regional summit, which was postponed due to a recent political shift in Thailand.
The BIMSTEC summit, which aims to foster regional cooperation among South Asian and Southeast Asian countries, had been an important event on Modi’s calendar. However, the postponement of the summit due to Thailand’s political upheaval has led to a reassessment of Modi’s travel plans. No new date has been set for the BIMSTEC summit, with further delays anticipated due to ongoing political developments in Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
Following his Southeast Asian tour, Modi is scheduled to attend the “Summit of the Future” at the United Nations in New York on September 22-23. This special meeting will focus on global challenges and future-oriented solutions, offering Modi a platform to address key issues on the international stage. After the summit, Modi is expected to stay in New York for a meeting with the Indian diaspora and the UN General Assembly.
The MEA spokesperson did not confirm whether the anticipated Quad Summit would coincide with Modi’s visit to New York. The Quad Summit, initially planned for 2024, has faced scheduling conflicts due to elections and leadership changes in the participating countries. The postponement or rescheduling of the summit reflects the complexities of international diplomacy and the need for coordination among multiple stakeholders.
India’s Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
One of the key diplomatic issues on Modi’s agenda is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. India has maintained a neutral stance on the conflict, focusing on supporting a peaceful resolution while balancing its relationships with both Russia and Ukraine. Modi’s recent visit to Ukraine and India’s stated commitment to assisting in a peaceful resolution to the conflict will be closely monitored.
Modi is expected to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. This meeting will be a critical moment for assessing India’s diplomatic stance and potential role in the conflict. India’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has included calls for dialogue and de-escalation, reflecting its broader foreign policy goals.
In addition to his engagement with Ukraine, Modi will attend the BRICS summit in Russia from October 22-24. The BRICS summit, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, will address global economic and security issues. Modi’s participation in the summit will be a key moment for assessing India’s role in the BRICS grouping and its approach to global challenges.
Following the BRICS summit, Modi is expected to host German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Delhi on October 25. The bilateral summit with Scholz will focus on various issues, including the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The discussions with Scholz are expected to explore avenues for cooperation and address shared concerns on global and regional issues.
India’s Stance on Mediation and Criticism
India’s position on mediation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a subject of international scrutiny. While Modi has expressed a willingness to play a “constructive role” in fostering peace, the specifics of India’s potential mediation efforts remain undefined. The MEA spokesperson emphasized that the decision on peace talks is ultimately up to the parties directly involved in the conflict.
India has faced criticism from Ukrainian officials regarding its oil purchases from Russia and its abstention votes at the United Nations concerning the conflict. This criticism highlights the challenges India faces in balancing its foreign policy interests and maintaining diplomatic relations with key stakeholders. Despite these criticisms, the Indian government has reiterated its commitment to diplomatic engagement and dialogue.
The MEA spokesperson declined to comment on specific aspects of Modi’s visit to Ukraine and the subsequent criticism from Ukrainian officials. Instead, the spokesperson emphasized that India’s approach remains guided by bilateral discussions and diplomatic considerations.
The Broader Implications for India-Pakistan Relations
The decision on whether India will attend the SCO Heads of Government summit in Pakistan carries broader implications for India-Pakistan relations. Historically, the two countries have navigated their bilateral relationship with a degree of caution, particularly in the context of multilateral engagements. Attendance at the SCO summit could signal a willingness to engage in dialogue and cooperation, potentially influencing the trajectory of bilateral relations.
Conversely, a decision to abstain from the summit could be seen as maintaining a cautious stance in light of ongoing issues between the two nations. The impact of this decision will be closely watched by regional and global observers, as it could shape future diplomatic interactions and regional dynamics.
As India weighs its options, the broader geopolitical context will play a significant role in shaping the final decision. The ongoing regional and global developments, including the conflict in Ukraine and the dynamics within the SCO, will influence India’s approach to the summit and its broader diplomatic strategy.
Conclusion
India’s response to the invitation for the SCO Heads of Government summit in Pakistan represents a critical moment in its diplomatic strategy. The decision will not only impact bilateral relations with Pakistan but also influence India’s broader foreign policy and regional engagement. As Prime Minister Modi navigates a complex diplomatic landscape, the outcome of this decision will be closely scrutinized for its implications on regional and global diplomacy.
In the coming weeks, India’s approach to the SCO summit and its other international engagements will offer insights into its strategic priorities and diplomatic objectives. The ongoing developments and diplomatic interactions will shape the trajectory of India’s foreign policy and its role in regional and global affairs.
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
