A Decaying Regime’s Struggle
Ahead of Iran’s presidential election on June 28th, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the nation’s supreme leader, proclaimed that every vote was a vote for his Islamic Republic. By this measure, the poll laid bare the eroding legitimacy of the regime, as an astonishing 60% of the 61 million-strong electorate abstained, resulting in the lowest turnout in the Islamic Republic’s history.
The Quiet Streets of Tehran
On election day, the capital’s streets were eerily silent. The usual hustle and bustle were conspicuously absent, replaced by a palpable sense of apathy and resignation. Many citizens dismissed the election as a sham orchestrated by a despotic regime. Instead of bustling queues at polling stations, observers found empty mosques and election monitors dozing off at their desks.
Illusory Calm and Lingering Instability
The deceptive calm should not be misconstrued as stability. The system remains in turmoil following the mysterious death of the incumbent president, Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash on May 19th. The unexpected election results necessitated a second round on July 5th, further exposing the deep fissures within Iranian society and underscoring the regime’s tenuous grasp on power.
The Hybrid Political Landscape
Iran’s political system is a convoluted amalgamation of democratic elements, military influence, and religious authority. Clerics and military commanders initially rallied behind Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, a stalwart of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. However, his third-place finish eliminated him from the race.
A Contest of Contrasts
Leading the race with 10.4 million votes is Masoud Pezeshkian, a 69-year-old surgeon and former health minister. Pezeshkian has vociferously condemned the regime’s corruption and draconian enforcement of the mandatory veil, advocating for engagement with the West. He enjoys the backing of a reformist bloc yearning for resurgence.
Trailing closely with 9.5 million votes is Saeed Jalili, a 58-year-old hardliner who appears a decade older. Jalili attributes Iran’s economic woes to sanctions and advocates confrontation with the West, favoring alliances with Russia and China. He denounces social liberalization efforts as counter-revolutionary.
Pezeshkian: The Reformist Hope
Pezeshkian’s supporters include prominent reformists like Jawad Zarif, the foreign minister who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal, and former presidents Muhammad Khatami and Hassan Rouhani. Despite this, some key reformers remain unconvinced. Pezeshkian’s detractors, including Mir Hossein Moussavi and Faezeh Hashemi Rafsanjani, view him as insufficiently radical and too late to effect meaningful change.
Jalili: The Zealous Hardliner
Jalili, supported by the militant Paydari Front, epitomizes religious extremism. His inflexible stance and incendiary rhetoric even unsettle the regime’s pragmatic top brass. Jalili’s staunch refusal to compromise and his background as a former chief nuclear negotiator underscore his hardline credentials.
The Looming Second Round
As the second round approaches, both candidates have much to prove. Jalili’s vote count is only half of Raisi’s 2021 tally, while Pezeshkian struggles to garner widespread reformist support. Both will likely exploit societal polarization, painting their opponent as an existential threat to rally voter turnout.
Ethnic and Gender Tensions
Ethnic and gender divides further complicate the political landscape. Jalili, hailing from Iran’s holiest city, Mashhad, appeals to the Persian-speaking majority. Pezeshkian, representing Tabriz in the north-west, has garnered support from Turkish and Kurdish communities. Gender issues remain critical, with the memory of Mahsa Amini’s death in custody fueling discontent. Pezeshkian’s call for women’s rights and equal treatment might yet galvanize female voters.
Geopolitical and Succession Concerns
The election is set against a backdrop of geopolitical tension and looming succession. Iran’s entanglements in regional conflicts, its nuclear ambitions, and its growing ties with Russia and China weigh heavily on the political discourse. Moreover, at 85, Khamenei’s concerns about his succession add another layer of complexity. The president plays a crucial role in the interregnum, making this election particularly significant for the ageing supreme leader.
Conclusion: The Uncertain Future
Despite holding many levers of power, including candidate selection and vote counting, Khamenei’s regime faces an uphill battle against widespread unpopularity and recurrent unrest. This election might yet trigger the greatest threat to his rule—an awakening of people power that could irrevocably alter Iran’s political landscape.
Sunil Garnayak is an expert in Indian news with extensive knowledge of the nation’s political, social, and economic landscape and international relations. With years of experience in journalism, Sunil delivers in-depth analysis and accurate reporting that keeps readers informed about the latest developments in India. His commitment to factual accuracy and nuanced storytelling ensures that his articles provide valuable insights into the country’s most pressing issues.
