The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected an early withdrawal of the monsoon from northwest India by September 22, signaling a remarkable shift that is expected to bring warmer temperatures across the region. This retreat is anticipated to be the earliest monsoon withdrawal in eight years. The La Niña phenomenon and Western disturbances are likely to shape weather patterns further, influencing the seasonal transition. The early end of the monsoon and its climatic implications are expected to impact not just temperatures but the overall agricultural cycle, with experts closely monitoring these developments.
India Meteorological Department Predicts Early Monsoon Withdrawal
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that northwest India is set to experience an unusually early withdrawal of the monsoon, with projections indicating a retreat by September 22. This will mark the earliest monsoon withdrawal in over eight years, which could lead to warmer weather conditions across large parts of the region. Historically, the monsoon withdraws from northwest India by the end of September, but this year, climatic patterns such as La Niña are accelerating the retreat, potentially disrupting the seasonal cycle.
Monsoon withdrawal typically starts in Rajasthan and proceeds to other regions, but this year’s early withdrawal means much of northwest India will experience a significant drop in rainfall sooner than expected. According to M Mohapatra, the Director General of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), rains will decline gradually after September 19. This shift will create a temporary period of warmer temperatures before cooler autumn weather settles in by October. The short window of increased warmth could impact both agriculture and water resources, as the earlier end to rainfall could create a moisture deficit in the soil.
Warmer Temperatures Set to Rise Across the Country
Following the early withdrawal of the monsoon, warmer temperatures are expected to dominate much of India, starting from September 19. According to the IMD’s extended weather outlook, temperatures will be slightly above normal for most regions, particularly in northwest India. The warmer phase is predicted to last until early October, after which cooler autumn conditions may take over, depending on the movement of Western disturbances and the influence of La Niña.
These warmer temperatures are not expected to be extreme, but they could be uncomfortable for areas already accustomed to relief from the monsoon rains. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) suggests that while the upcoming period will be marked by drier conditions, some areas, especially in east India, may still receive rainfall during the second half of September. Rainfall may also be sporadic over the central and southern parts of the country, particularly during the week from September 26 to October 3.
For regions that rely heavily on seasonal cooling, such as Punjab and Haryana, the extension of warmer temperatures could lead to short-term stress for both people and crops. Farmers are particularly concerned about this trend, as extended periods of warmth following the monsoon could lead to increased evaporation rates, reducing soil moisture needed for post-monsoon planting.
Warmer weather, combined with lower moisture levels, could delay sowing for winter crops such as wheat, and the agriculture sector must adapt quickly to these unpredictable changes. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has advised farmers to adjust their schedules accordingly, noting that the timing of the monsoon’s withdrawal is crucial for maintaining soil fertility and crop yields.
La Niña and Western Disturbances: Influencing the Seasonal Transition
India’s weather in the coming months is expected to be heavily influenced by the La Niña phenomenon and the movement of Western disturbances. La Niña, which refers to a cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, typically brings cooler and wetter weather conditions to India. In contrast, El Niño, its counterpart, leads to warmer and drier weather patterns. The switch from El Niño to La Niña will be critical in determining how the autumn and winter seasons unfold.
According to M Rajeevan, former Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, La Niña conditions often coincide with cooler autumns and winters in India. If these patterns hold, northern India could experience a colder-than-normal winter, although the timing of Western disturbances will also play a role. These disturbances are essentially storms that originate from the Mediterranean and make their way eastward, bringing rain and snow to parts of India. When these storms hit, they often trigger colder winds and a sharp drop in temperatures, especially in northwest India.
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather, noted that this year’s transition period between the monsoon and winter is particularly important. “Once the winds shift to a northerly direction, the influence of Western disturbances will determine whether we get a rapid drop in temperatures or only a marginal decrease. It’s a delicate balance between the arrival of winter and the lingering warmth of the post-monsoon period,” he said.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) will continue to monitor these patterns closely, as the impact of Western disturbances can vary significantly from year to year. While the early withdrawal of the monsoon signals the start of a warmer period, the extent and severity of the upcoming winter will depend largely on how these global climatic factors play out.
Impact of Early Monsoon Withdrawal on Agriculture and Water Resources
The earlier-than-expected withdrawal of the monsoon is likely to have a profound effect on India’s agriculture, particularly in northwest India, where many crops are heavily reliant on consistent monsoon rains. While the country as a whole has seen a surplus in rainfall this year—8% above average since June—the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warns that this early withdrawal could create challenges for farmers who are now facing the prospect of diminished water availability.
Crops such as rice, which require a long monsoon season, are especially vulnerable to the shortened rainy period. Farmers in the region are now grappling with the possibility of reduced yields, as the early end to the monsoon may leave soil moisture levels lower than usual. This could have a knock-on effect on crop productivity, especially for farmers who rely on rain-fed agriculture and may not have access to irrigation systems.
Beyond agriculture, the early retreat of the monsoon also raises concerns about water resources. In states such as Punjab and Haryana, where groundwater depletion is already a pressing issue, the prospect of warmer temperatures and diminished rainfall could exacerbate the strain on water supplies. The IMD has urged local governments to implement water conservation measures and to encourage farmers to adopt more water-efficient practices in the coming months.
For much of the country, the transition from monsoon to autumn is a critical period that determines water availability for both drinking and irrigation. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has emphasized that while the early end to the monsoon is a natural variation, the broader trend of unpredictable weather patterns underscores the need for long-term planning and adaptation in both agriculture and water management.
FAQ
How will the early monsoon withdrawal impact the weather in northwest India?
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that northwest India will see an early monsoon withdrawal by September 22, which could lead to an increase in temperatures across the region. The withdrawal is happening earlier than usual, making it the earliest in eight years. This retreat will create warmer-than-normal conditions, especially from September 19 onward, as dry weather takes over and rainfall decreases significantly. The IMD forecasts that while the rest of the country may also experience warmer temperatures, the impact will be most prominent in northwest India, where the shift from monsoon to autumn could be abrupt.
The early retreat of the monsoon also raises concerns for farmers who rely on consistent rainfall for crop production. With the rainy season ending earlier, there may be moisture deficits in the soil, affecting agriculture in the short term. Farmers may need to adapt their schedules and water management practices to cope with this change. The IMD advises that these adjustments should be made promptly, as the timing of the monsoon’s withdrawal is critical for crop yields.
What role does La Niña play in shaping the seasonal transition?
La Niña is a climatic phenomenon characterized by the cooling of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which influences global weather patterns. In India, La Niña typically leads to cooler and wetter conditions. This year, La Niña is expected to significantly impact the post-monsoon season, bringing cooler temperatures as the country transitions into autumn. While the early withdrawal of the monsoon will initially result in warmer temperatures, the influence of La Niña could lead to a rapid cooling effect later in the season.
According to experts like M Rajeevan, La Niña tends to bring cooler autumns and winters to India, especially in northern regions. However, the timing and severity of the cooling depend on how other global weather systems, such as Western disturbances, interact with La Niña. If La Niña strengthens in the coming months, India could experience a colder-than-normal winter, which would provide relief after the brief spike in temperatures following the monsoon’s withdrawal.
How do Western disturbances influence India’s winter weather?
Western disturbances are storms that originate in the Mediterranean region and travel eastward toward India. When these disturbances reach India, they bring rain to the plains and snow to the Himalayas. This precipitation is crucial for replenishing water resources and triggering a drop in temperatures across northern India. The impact of Western disturbances becomes more pronounced as autumn transitions into winter, especially after the monsoon has fully withdrawn.
In years when Western disturbances are strong and frequent, northern India can experience sharp drops in temperature, leading to cold winters. Conversely, if these disturbances are weak or irregular, winters may be milder. This year, the early withdrawal of the monsoon, combined with the onset of La Niña, could set the stage for significant Western disturbances later in the year. As Mahesh Palawat of Skymet Weather explains, the timing of these disturbances will determine whether the region sees a rapid cooling or just a marginal drop in temperatures.
How will the early monsoon withdrawal affect agriculture in northwest India?
The early withdrawal of the monsoon presents challenges for agriculture, especially in northwest India, where crops like rice, wheat, and pulses rely heavily on seasonal rainfall. With the monsoon ending sooner than expected, there is a risk that soil moisture levels will drop before crops have fully matured, leading to lower yields. Farmers may also face difficulty in sowing winter crops, such as wheat, as the early end to the rainy season could reduce the availability of water for irrigation.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has advised farmers to adjust their planting schedules and explore water conservation techniques to mitigate the effects of the early monsoon withdrawal. In states like Punjab and Haryana, where groundwater depletion is already a concern, the early retreat of the monsoon could further strain water resources, making it essential for farmers to adopt efficient irrigation practices.
What are the long-term implications of early monsoon withdrawal and warming temperatures?
The early withdrawal of the monsoon and the subsequent rise in temperatures highlight the increasing variability of India’s climate, driven by global factors such as La Niña and Western disturbances. Over the long term, these shifts could have far-reaching impacts on agriculture, water resources, and public health. With climate change exacerbating weather patterns, India may face more frequent occurrences of early or late monsoon withdrawals, making it crucial for both the government and the agricultural sector to develop adaptive strategies.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already indicated that warmer temperatures will become more common in the short term, especially in regions that have historically relied on predictable monsoon patterns. As India continues to experience these weather shifts, there will be a need for greater investment in climate-resilient infrastructure, sustainable water management practices, and the development of crops that can withstand both extreme heat and irregular rainfall.
What measures can be taken to mitigate the effects of early monsoon withdrawal?
To mitigate the effects of early monsoon withdrawal, farmers and local governments must adopt a combination of short-term and long-term strategies. In the short term, farmers should adjust planting schedules to align with the shifting monsoon patterns, ensuring that crops are sown earlier or irrigated efficiently to counteract the loss of natural rainfall. Additionally, water conservation techniques, such as drip irrigation and rainwater harvesting, can help maintain soil moisture levels even after the rainy season has ended.
In the long term, investments in climate-resilient infrastructure will be crucial. This includes building more reservoirs and improving water storage systems to ensure that adequate water supplies are available throughout the year. The government should also promote research into drought-resistant crop varieties that can thrive in conditions where rainfall is inconsistent or ends earlier than expected.
Finally, public awareness campaigns can help educate farmers and local communities about the risks associated with early monsoon withdrawal and the importance of water management. By taking these proactive steps, India can better cope with the challenges posed by changing weather patterns and ensure that its agricultural sector remains resilient in the face of climate change.
Soumya Smruti Sahoo is a seasoned journalist with extensive experience in both international and Indian news writing. With a sharp analytical mind and a dedication to uncovering the truth, Soumya has built a reputation for delivering in-depth, well-researched articles that provide readers with a clear understanding of complex global and domestic issues. Her work reflects a deep commitment to journalistic integrity, making her a trusted source for accurate and insightful news coverage.
